In a wide ranging on-stage interview, Speyer spoke of a massive business revival in his native US. "I think the private sector is on the cusp of huge growth potential. If you consider all the positive things over the past five years in terms of companies positioning themselves, it's inevitable that they will take advantage of this," he said. "I think we are right on the edge of a major business expansion." For one thing manufacturing jobs are returning from, mostly, Far East offshoring. "Nobody would have thought this was possible five years ago," he added.
Part of the recovery phenomenon in the US has been a build-up of immense stores of cash that will ultimately also benefit a general global recovery, Speyer said. "The world has been in the process of de-leveraging since the downturn, yet there has also been an incredible accumulation of cash in different parts of the world. In America there has never been a time in the history of the country when there has been more liquidity in corporations. There are trillions, not billions, trillions of dollars on the balance sheets of American companies! They have done all the things they needed to do to reduce costs and the one thng they have done is to borrow as much capital as they could because it is so cheap… while the earnings and return line of American companies is staggering. We didn't see that in the past."
Asked which market in the world he sees as holding most potential for Tishman Speyer at present, Speyer said: "I am a believer that you can make money in good times and bad times. I see opportunity in places where there are problems and in places where there don't appear to be any problems. Here in Spain is a terrific opportunity. We wouldn't be scared to invest if we see the right things." He added that his native New York City is also very promising - despite admitting that one of the biggest mistakes he made was to invest, alongside private equity giant BlackRock, in the Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town apartment complex in Manhattan in 2006. The venture ultimately collapsed in 2010 with a default on $4.4bn in debt used to acquire the sprawling 56-building, 11,000-unit property for $5.4bn.
Speyer said Asia holds a lot of opportunity, and he is bullish on China - marvelling that cap rates on some Chinese office have dropped from as high as 13% a few years ago to 4% now. "I think India is a place with long term possibilities; it is a bit opaque but an opportunity nonetheless. Brazil is a great place, despite the downturn at the moment. There are interesting things to do in Brazil.
Looking down at Turkey and in the Middle East I think there will also be great opportunities coming along for doing business in these markets."
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